Friday, 24 January 2020
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Cobra meeting held to discuss plan of action if it comes to the UK (assuming it hasn't already). This is another consequence of globalisation and mass immigration, people with diseases from all over the world travelling all over the world, what could possibly go wrong?
2 years ago
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#240379
I agree that the virus has spread to a lot of countries directly from Italy as they are not taking it seriously including the continents of Africa and South America.

Also agree that it will be rampant in the UK soon as we too are not taking it seriously enough. There is one case in the south where he has not been to an affected area. Try backtracking contacts and then their contacts - impossible. NHS is not equipped to cope. Millennials might be ok as they have been self isolating for 20 years.
2 years ago
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#240380
I agree. But if you are going to use that logic you could also say it has spread across Europe from England. Remember the Brighton "superspreader" scoutmaster.

https://www.brightonandhovenews.org/2020/02/11/hove-superspreader-steve-walsh-speaks-from-hospital-bed/

The virus came from China. Read that Guardian article you are quoting from:-

"A viral outbreak that began in China has infected more than 83,000 people globally, with almost 3,000 deaths. As the list of countries hit by the illness edged towards 60, with Mexico, Belarus, Lithuania, New Zealand, Nigeria, Azerbaijan and the Netherlands reporting their first cases, the threats to livelihoods were increasingly eyed as warily as the threats to lives".
2 years ago
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#240381
I reckon you just have to be one of the lucky ones that can fight it off as eventually everyone will become in contact with it.

My immune system is knacked so that will probably be me [censored] then.
2 years ago
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#240382
You deserve to be one of the lucky ones Munchy.
2 years ago
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#240383
You deserve to be one of the lucky ones Munchy.


Cheers pal - you too.
2 years ago
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#240384
No it seems clear the death rate is around 1-2% but if 5 million Brits become infected it could mean 100,000 extra deaths. Blood groups and genetically-derived resistance might help to explain how some people display no symptoms while others get it bad.


Any link to this?

I'm blood group 'O' by the way.
2 years ago
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#240385
As most will know on here I'm into stats and have been following this since it was mentioned on the news.

The BBC news was very recently world respected but not any more and you can see it with the lack of quality (presenters and insight) and budget cuts.\\

Sky news which was seen as joke at its launch and the 1970s-80s John Cravens New Round is/ was more in depth.

Keep on eye on this if you can do the math (millennia's)/maths
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
2 years ago
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#240386
I agree that the virus has spread to a lot of countries directly from Italy as they are not taking it seriously including the continents of Africa and South America.

Also agree that it will be rampant in the UK soon as we too are not taking it seriously enough. There is one case in the south where he has not been to an affected area. Try backtracking contacts and then their contacts - impossible. NHS is not equipped to cope. Millennials might be ok as they have been self isolating for 20 years.


It's not that we aren't taking it seriously, we are. It's just that containment is virtually impossible at this stage when you consider how many people are infected and how much global transport we have. One infected person on an international flight can bring the virus into a new country. And then you've got to find everyone they had contact with, and everyone that those people had contact with. If the original infected person had contact with just 10 people and those people also had contact with 10 others, that's already over a hundred people you need to find and test. Now consider that there might be 10 infected people on that flight, or that the 100 newly infected people I talked about also each have contact with 10 other people. It quickly becomes impossible to properly contain it. China had sealed their borders the moment they knew about the outbreak in Wuhan then it's possible it wouldn't have spread beyond China. At this stage there's not much we can do, just be glad it doesn't seem to be much worse than the regular flu.
2 years ago
·
#240387
No it seems clear the death rate is around 1-2% but if 5 million Brits become infected it could mean 100,000 extra deaths. Blood groups and genetically-derived resistance might help to explain how some people display no symptoms while others get it bad.


Any link to this?

I'm blood group 'O' by the way.


It is too early for this to be anything other than supposition. I have no idea which blood group or which racial type is more or less susceptible. However here is a link to a paper.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4475644/

As regards the guy in Harlow who caught it you don't have to be Sherlock Holmes to notice Stansted Airport is 15 minutes drive away with lots of Ryanair flights from Northern Italy. He might just have been standing in a queue somewhere and been coughed on by the guy behind. Men seem to be the majority spreaders of the virus which is why football matches are considered as something to halt in the event of a national emergency.
2 years ago
·
#240389
I agree that the virus has spread to a lot of countries directly from Italy as they are not taking it seriously including the continents of Africa and South America.

Also agree that it will be rampant in the UK soon as we too are not taking it seriously enough. There is one case in the south where he has not been to an affected area. Try backtracking contacts and then their contacts - impossible. NHS is not equipped to cope. Millennials might be ok as they have been self isolating for 20 years.


It's not that we aren't taking it seriously, we are. It's just that containment is virtually impossible at this stage when you consider how many people are infected and how much global transport we have. One infected person on an international flight can bring the virus into a new country. And then you've got to find everyone they had contact with, and everyone that those people had contact with. If the original infected person had contact with just 10 people and those people also had contact with 10 others, that's already over a hundred people you need to find and test. Now consider that there might be 10 infected people on that flight, or that the 100 newly infected people I talked about also each have contact with 10 other people. It quickly becomes impossible to properly contain it. China had sealed their borders the moment they knew about the outbreak in Wuhan then it's possible it wouldn't have spread beyond China. At this stage there's not much we can do, just be glad it doesn't seem to be much worse than the regular flu.


In my opinion, where they're falling down is they should instruct the entire population to do that 3 temp check thing and then give everybody an easy way to report it if they fail at least that way on a certain day they can rule out 99% of the population making getting in touch with the other 1% a much easier task and they can then be told to self isolate [ even tho i.m not convinced about that how do you self isolate if you live in a familiy home ? ] At least what we.ve done up to now seems to have worked.

I think we.ll end up with a lot of people with the symptoms but very few will go on to become seriously ill but I think they need to start clearing a few hospital wards and finding some alternative locations to requisition, Holiday Centres perhaps ?


Interesting idea Barry but the thing to consider with that is what about the people who won't want to say they have the virus? I heard on the news there was already a case where a lad who was quarantined was wanting to leave and had to be prevented. A lot of people won't necessarily want to go into quarantine so might just claim their temperature was fine?
2 years ago
·
#240390
I agree that the virus has spread to a lot of countries directly from Italy as they are not taking it seriously including the continents of Africa and South America.

Also agree that it will be rampant in the UK soon as we too are not taking it seriously enough. There is one case in the south where he has not been to an affected area. Try backtracking contacts and then their contacts - impossible. NHS is not equipped to cope. Millennials might be ok as they have been self isolating for 20 years.


It's not that we aren't taking it seriously, we are. It's just that containment is virtually impossible at this stage when you consider how many people are infected and how much global transport we have. One infected person on an international flight can bring the virus into a new country. And then you've got to find everyone they had contact with, and everyone that those people had contact with. If the original infected person had contact with just 10 people and those people also had contact with 10 others, that's already over a hundred people you need to find and test. Now consider that there might be 10 infected people on that flight, or that the 100 newly infected people I talked about also each have contact with 10 other people. It quickly becomes impossible to properly contain it. China had sealed their borders the moment they knew about the outbreak in Wuhan then it's possible it wouldn't have spread beyond China. At this stage there's not much we can do, just be glad it doesn't seem to be much worse than the regular flu.


In my opinion, where they're falling down is they should instruct the entire population to do that 3 temp check thing and then give everybody an easy way to report it if they fail at least that way on a certain day they can rule out 99% of the population making getting in touch with the other 1% a much easier task and they can then be told to self isolate [ even tho i.m not convinced about that how do you self isolate if you live in a familiy home ? ] At least what we.ve done up to now seems to have worked.

I think we.ll end up with a lot of people with the symptoms but very few will go on to become seriously ill but I think they need to start clearing a few hospital wards and finding some alternative locations to requisition, Holiday Centres perhaps ?


No way I’m spending a fortnight at Butlins
2 years ago
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#240391
There are some interesting trends emerging. North Asian countries with cold winters have been much more badly affected than countries like India, Indonesia and Thailand. The virus has only travelled south from Northern Italy by people travelling long distances. Very few kids have been infected. The conclusion I would reach is that shutting schools would be to stop the teachers and parents affecting each other in contrast to say a measles outbreak. The virus seems to dislike hot dry weather so it may have done its worst in continental Europe by the summer. The supermarkets are running low on antibacterial handwash and some tinned food so best buy now before it becomes scarce.
2 years ago
·
#240392
No it seems clear the death rate is around 1-2% but if 5 million Brits become infected it could mean 100,000 extra deaths. Blood groups and genetically-derived resistance might help to explain how some people display no symptoms while others get it bad.


Any link to this?

I'm blood group 'O' by the way.


It is too early for this to be anything other than supposition. I have no idea which blood group or which racial type is more or less susceptible. However here is a link to a paper.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4475644/

As regards the guy in Harlow who caught it you don't have to be Sherlock Holmes to notice Stansted Airport is 15 minutes drive away with lots of Ryanair flights from Northern Italy. He might just have been standing in a queue somewhere and been coughed on by the guy behind. Men seem to be the majority spreaders of the virus which is why football matches are considered as something to halt in the event of a national emergency.


Your logic for connecting the gentleman from Harlow with a man coughing in a queue somewhere and direct flights from Northern Italy into Stansted may be a little simplistic. Using that logic could it not be equally as likely that he caught it from someone who had flown in to Heathrow from China? Remember the scoutmaster in Brighton. He flew into London Gatwick from Geneva (via Easyjet) after initially visiting Singapore. He had not been to Italy.

I am also intrigued to learn that men are the majority spreaders of the virus. I was aware that men are more susceptible to dying from the virus but have not read anywhere that men are the main carriers. Can you provide a link to something that says this?
2 years ago
·
#240393
Howoldboy do you know Harlow? I'd say very few people who live there would work in Heathrow or would tend to use it for travel. On the other hand the Princess Alexandra hospital in Harlow is the nearest full scale A&E to Stansted Airport and would be the choice for people from the Bishops Stortford area where most airport workers live. I would bet any money with the known facts on this being linked to Northern Italy in some way. The Chinese have done a good job in containing the virus to Hubei province. Italy is now our main concern as illustrated by the picture of Boris on the front of the Times looking at a map of Italy with the dangers spots in the North marked out.

As regards men being more likely to transmit the virus, men travel more for business than women do. As the virus seems to be spread by cough droplets, one of the key factors for transmission is height. Men are generally taller and therefore are more likely for their infected droplets to infect other people. Women are more likely to cough onto other people's clothing which is much less likely to cause infection. Men may have a greater susceptibility to the virus which the numbers would suggest but it is early days in analysing the data.
2 years ago
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#240394
Thank you for enlightening me.
2 years ago
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#240395
Swiss league suspended for three weeks.
2 years ago
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#240396
Just need to wear a pair of Collins gloves - he hasn’t caught anything lately.
2 years ago
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#240397
If it can be transmitted through sex most of us are safe
2 years ago
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#240398
Can you catch it from sheep. Just asking for a mate.
2 years ago
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#240399
Yew can.
2 years ago
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#240400
I can see this is all going to end really baaaaaadly.
2 years ago
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#240401
Johnson has announced that they're going to immediately recruit 100,000 new doctors / nurses to deal with the potential spread of the virus.

They're all currently employed as doctors and nurses for the NHS, but they're definitely new.
2 years ago
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#240402
France still coming to Scotland for the rugby. I'd have that called off.
2 years ago
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#240404
A study published this week on Chinaxiv.org, a platform used by the Chinese Academy of Sciences to release scientific research papers before they have been peer-reviewed.
http://www.chinaxiv.org/abs/2

Though it has not been peer reviewed, two other studies including one in Europe have confirmed the findings. The combined findings from the three studies indicates that because of the HIV-like mutations, its ability to bind with human cells could be as much as 1,000 times more potent that the initial SARS virus of 2003.

The fact that reinfections are emerging and that we still do not know what latent viral loads in the body can do to us in the short term, midterm or long term as we have only been exposed to the new virus in the last 9 weeks or so makes it even more frightening. One virologist from UK who says he wanted to remain anonymous as he might be accused of causing panic or misinformation warned that the new coronavirus can be described in basic terms as a “slow airborne killer that will never let its victim off, even if it loses the battle the first time”, implying that even in those so called recovered might face reinfections or that the existing viral loads in the body will eventually cause some other new chronic disease.

Credit to Thailand Medical News.
https://www.thailandmedical.news/news/breaking-latestcoronavirus-research-reveals-that-the-virus-has-mutated-gene-similar-to-hiv-and-is-1,000-times-more-potent-

In a recent simulation by The Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security in partnership with the World Economic Forum and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, a coronavirus killed 65 million people.
Event 201 simulates an outbreak of a novel zoonotic coronavirus transmitted from bats to pigs to people that eventually becomes efficiently transmissible from person to person, leading to a severe pandemic. The pathogen and the disease it causes are modelled largely on SARS, but it is more transmissible in the community setting by people with mild symptoms.

Source article:
http://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/event201/scenario.html
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