Coronavirus

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10 Mar 2020 14:17 #351 by seesaw50
Replied by seesaw50 on topic Coronavirus

CCU wrote:


I understand why they'd do this but it's a bit futile for an outdoor event.

Need to spread out tonight people...at least a metre between you an the next fan. Should be easy to do...and sit with 2 seats at least between you and the next guy

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10 Mar 2020 14:17 #352 by CarlisleWhite
Replied by CarlisleWhite on topic Coronavirus

Dave wrote: Teacher at Trinity school Carlisle has it according to news. School is not being shut!! Very peculiar decision as kids, although possibly will only get mild version themselves, go everywhere and will spread it.
On a lighter note judging by comments on other thread about decreasing crowds at BP perhaps anyone who does get it should self isolate at BP - there`s plenty of room

Story they are putting out is a bit fishy. He went to Milan on a skiing trip apparently, presumably at half term, and did not know Milan was a high risk area when he got back??
Austin Friars had their skiing trip there at the same time and all kids who went never went back to school and were told to work from home.
How come he's been there?

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10 Mar 2020 14:18 #353 by heilkmoon
Replied by heilkmoon on topic Coronavirus

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10 Mar 2020 14:21 #354 by NORTHERNSOUL
Replied by NORTHERNSOUL on topic Re:Coronavirus

Zebby wrote: Was talking to a paramedic yesterday I wasn't aware that the eyes are the main entry point for the virus folk walking around with mouth covered when it should be the eyes also said takes about 15 minutes to get infection so if they attend a potential infected person one attends to assess situation if they think it's virus return to vehicle and both return in full protection


What do you expect when there are millions of people wandering round in masks thinking that will reduce the chances of them getting infected when in fact the reason for masks is to stop them [ if they have it ] infecting other people ?

But yes you're right I was surprised at the lack of protection worn by the healthcare workers when doing the preliminary swab and temperature tests last week in Bury. But a friend of mine who usually works with teenagers doing things like std and hiv information who has volunteered to do the testing has been telling me about the procedure and some it it was very interesting

And the 15-minute thing will be the reason why events aren't being cancelled when you're much more likely to catch it by infecting your hands from an already infected surface not washing and then infecting yourself from them rather than by sitting next to somebody who has it at the match.

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10 Mar 2020 14:24 #355 by seesaw50
Replied by seesaw50 on topic Coronavirus

CarlisleWhite wrote:

Dave wrote: Teacher at Trinity school Carlisle has it according to news. School is not being shut!! Very peculiar decision as kids, although possibly will only get mild version themselves, go everywhere and will spread it.
On a lighter note judging by comments on other thread about decreasing crowds at BP perhaps anyone who does get it should self isolate at BP - there`s plenty of room

Story they are putting out is a bit fishy. He went to Milan on a skiing trip apparently, presumably at half term, and did not know Milan was a high risk area when he got back??
Austin Friars had their skiing trip there at the same time and all kids who went never went back to school and were told to work from home.
How come he's been there?


He'd be hard pressed to do any skiing in Milan ......its 2 weeks since half term us it not anyway. So did he go independently not on Trinity school trip? At the time of half term Italy wasn't as badly hit but he should have been aware none gre less.

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is to have won the lottery of life !

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10 Mar 2020 14:28 #356 by Dancingbear
Replied by Dancingbear on topic Coronavirus

seesaw50 wrote:

CarlisleWhite wrote:

Dave wrote: Teacher at Trinity school Carlisle has it according to news. School is not being shut!! Very peculiar decision as kids, although possibly will only get mild version themselves, go everywhere and will spread it.
On a lighter note judging by comments on other thread about decreasing crowds at BP perhaps anyone who does get it should self isolate at BP - there`s plenty of room

Story they are putting out is a bit fishy. He went to Milan on a skiing trip apparently, presumably at half term, and did not know Milan was a high risk area when he got back??
Austin Friars had their skiing trip there at the same time and all kids who went never went back to school and were told to work from home.
How come he's been there?


He'd be hard pressed to do any skiing in Milan ......its 2 weeks since half term us it not anyway. So did he go independently not on Trinity school trip? At the time of half term Italy wasn't as badly hit but he should have been aware none gre less.


He’d maybe have been hard pressed to get a flight from the top of a alp as well.

There's only one way of life and that's your own!!!

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10 Mar 2020 14:28 #357 by NORTHERNSOUL
Replied by NORTHERNSOUL on topic Coronavirus

Dave wrote: Teacher at Trinity school Carlisle has it according to news. School is not being shut!! Very peculiar decision as kids, although possibly will only get mild version themselves, go everywhere and will spread it.
On a lighter note judging by comments on other thread about decreasing crowds at BP perhaps anyone who does get it should self isolate at BP - there`s plenty of room


Will the kids have been getting within a metre of the teacher? If not i.d say they'd be pretty safe. I.d be more concerned about other staff members who they may get up close and personal with.

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10 Mar 2020 14:40 #358 by CCU
Replied by CCU on topic Coronavirus

Win or Lose, Up The Blues!

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10 Mar 2020 16:14 #359 by carwash
Replied by carwash on topic Re:Coronavirus

Zebby wrote: Was talking to a paramedic yesterday I wasn't aware that the eyes are the main entry point for the virus folk walking around with mouth covered when it should be the eyes also said takes about 15 minutes to get infection so if they attend a potential infected person one attends to assess situation if they think it's virus return to vehicle and both return in full protection


The eyes are not likely to be the main entry point for most coronavirus infections compared to the respiratory tract because they will only be exposed to very small amounts of the virus during contact with infected persons. However because paramedics work in very close quarters with patients then it is entirely sensible for them to wear eye protection. I bought a decent pair of safety goggles from Wickes yesterday for Β£5 just in case things get a lot worse and I have to help with infected neighbours. Keeping your distance and regular handwashing is the best plan for staying safe for the time being.

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10 Mar 2020 17:20 #360 by CarlisleWhite
Replied by CarlisleWhite on topic Coronavirus

seesaw50 wrote:

CarlisleWhite wrote:

Dave wrote: Teacher at Trinity school Carlisle has it according to news. School is not being shut!! Very peculiar decision as kids, although possibly will only get mild version themselves, go everywhere and will spread it.
On a lighter note judging by comments on other thread about decreasing crowds at BP perhaps anyone who does get it should self isolate at BP - there`s plenty of room

Story they are putting out is a bit fishy. He went to Milan on a skiing trip apparently, presumably at half term, and did not know Milan was a high risk area when he got back??
Austin Friars had their skiing trip there at the same time and all kids who went never went back to school and were told to work from home.
How come he's been there?


He'd be hard pressed to do any skiing in Milan ......its 2 weeks since half term us it not anyway. So did he go independently not on Trinity school trip? At the time of half term Italy wasn't as badly hit but he should have been aware none gre less.

Seesaw, skiing was my assumption. He's been to Northern Italy, so must have been in the half term no? I'm not sure when half term was but Friars lot who went told to work from home, so never back in the school

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10 Mar 2020 17:30 #361 by Dentonholmersimpson
Replied by Dentonholmersimpson on topic Re:Coronavirus

markredfox73 wrote: Get out to back of beyond where hardly anyone is around..Galloway forest fits the bill

Sent from my MRD-LX1 using Tapatalk


Brunton Park it is then.
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10 Mar 2020 17:33 #362 by Markovitch
Replied by Markovitch on topic Re:Coronavirus
Anyone wanting to self isolate should join our attack. Loft has been self isolating all season
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10 Mar 2020 17:38 #363 by seesaw50
Replied by seesaw50 on topic Coronavirus
Yeah but half term was the week beginning 17th Feb...so he'd be back at work week beginning 24th Feb......obviously the Milan area was starting to see cases then....its worrying that a presumably educated teacher wasnt aware he was entering a designated hot spot, and didn't take appropriate precautions.
It was just me being pedantic on the skiing in Milan.

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10 Mar 2020 18:18 #364 by Urban Designer
Replied by Urban Designer on topic Re:Coronavirus
877 critical in Italy - none here - its like ww2 and the soft underbelly!

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10 Mar 2020 20:22 #365 by orfc
Replied by orfc on topic Coronavirus
Carlisle (5) has nearly the same number of infected as the whole of Wales (6). Top work!

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10 Mar 2020 21:18 #366 by howoldboy
Replied by howoldboy on topic Re:Coronavirus

Urban Designer wrote: 877 critical in Italy - none here - its like ww2 and the soft underbelly!


In your post earlier today (#344 in this thread) you said that the "UK is one of the few countries that don't give the data for those who are critical".

Are you now saying the opposite?

My understanding is that the UK Government is not disclosing this information or do you have an inside source?

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10 Mar 2020 22:17 - 10 Mar 2020 22:27 #367 by CCU
Replied by CCU on topic Coronavirus

howoldboy wrote:

Urban Designer wrote: 877 critical in Italy - none here - its like ww2 and the soft underbelly!


In your post earlier today (#344 in this thread) you said that the "UK is one of the few countries that don't give the data for those who are critical".

Are you now saying the opposite?

My understanding is that the UK Government is not disclosing this information or do you have an inside source?


Come on How, it’s not like UD to get some figures wrong...

;)

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Last edit: 10 Mar 2020 22:27 by CCU.
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10 Mar 2020 22:52 #368 by Dancingbear
Replied by Dancingbear on topic Coronavirus
Nadine Dorries tests positive. Plenty oaps in parliament to pass it on to.

There's only one way of life and that's your own!!!
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10 Mar 2020 23:20 #369 by seesaw50
Replied by seesaw50 on topic Coronavirus
She's been at some do at number 10 last Thursday apparently as well, so everyone being traced now.

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11 Mar 2020 01:05 #370 by Flatcap
Replied by Flatcap on topic Coronavirus
Apple are now saying mobile phones and touch screens could be a risk and are recommending phone cleaning.

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11 Mar 2020 02:23 #371 by thetashkentterror
Replied by thetashkentterror on topic Coronavirus
Man City v Arsenal postponed.

Edging closer and closer to a full suspension of matches you would think.

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11 Mar 2020 07:30 #372 by BlueAl
Replied by BlueAl on topic Coronavirus
If it reaches the house of Lords, there's 650 snouts in troughs claiming Β£350 per day, each. Huge savings to be had. Just saying.

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11 Mar 2020 08:16 #373 by carwash
Replied by carwash on topic Coronavirus
A boy genius has made this brilliant website which generates a poster for washing your hands to your favourite song lyrics. Mine is Gary Gilmore's Eyes by the Adverts. washyourlyrics.com
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11 Mar 2020 10:28 #374 by Alan
Replied by Alan on topic Coronavirus
A good watch for the glass half empty brigade not so good for us half fullers.



Kind of resigned to a shitstorm in the coming weeks.
Hopefully a short lived one.

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11 Mar 2020 10:41 #375 by Urban Designer
Replied by Urban Designer on topic Coronavirus
I was responding to a earlier post by Nothernsoul who said not many will be critical. From what I'm following the number critical isn't given but there might be other sources.

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11 Mar 2020 11:07 #376 by Dancingbear
Replied by Dancingbear on topic Coronavirus
Rangers game next week in Leverkrusen behind closed doors as its in the worst affected area in Germany but over 1k Bayer fans allowed to the first leg in Glasgow tomorrow night. Now obviously theres a lot more chance of catching summat off the Celtic fans on sunday but id have thought letting 1000 Germans in from the worst hit area is madness. Think id be throwing a sicky if i was on passport control.

There's only one way of life and that's your own!!!
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11 Mar 2020 11:21 #377 by Urban Designer
Replied by Urban Designer on topic Coronavirus
Also a strange decision to have thousand of French in Scotland for the rugby.
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11 Mar 2020 12:20 #378 by NORTHERNSOUL
Replied by NORTHERNSOUL on topic Coronavirus

Urban Designer wrote: I was responding to a earlier post by Nothernsoul who said not many will be critical. From what I'm following the number critical isn't given but there might be other sources.


Nobody is critically ill from having the virus. People need to understand the virus doesn't kill you. In 99% of cases its no worse than having normal flu. But in a small number of people with existing illnesses, it reduces the capacity of your immune system to fight off those illnesses causing those people to become very ill with whatever it was they were originally suffering from and not from the virus itself.

And therefore it could be said that it's actually wrong to attribute any deaths in these circumstances to the virus when that wasn't what killed them. A bit like if somebody was killed in a car crash and it turns out that they'd tested positive for the virus saying that was responsible and not the injuries they suffered in the crash.
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11 Mar 2020 12:39 #379 by Mush
Replied by Mush on topic Coronavirus

heilkmoon wrote:

CCU wrote:


Might get a bumper crowd of people turning up to nick the hand sanitizer.


no bog roll though I heard.

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11 Mar 2020 12:43 #380 by Markovitch
Replied by Markovitch on topic Coronavirus
Ukraine has stopped flights to London and Germany.

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11 Mar 2020 13:24 #381 by nobbyblue
Replied by nobbyblue on topic Coronavirus

Dancingbear wrote: Rangers game next week in Leverkrusen behind closed doors as its in the worst affected area in Germany but over 1k Bayer fans allowed to the first leg in Glasgow tomorrow night. Now obviously theres a lot more chance of catching summat off the Celtic fans on sunday but id have thought letting 1000 Germans in from the worst hit area is madness. Think id be throwing a sicky if i was on passport control.


I think it's the Germans who should be worried about catching something. :-D
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11 Mar 2020 14:35 #382 by Urban Designer
Replied by Urban Designer on topic Coronavirus
It's true that if you are relatively young you will be ok and most won't notice they have it - be just like a cold or mild flu.

Death Rates by age:
DEATH RATE
all cases
80+ years old: 14.8%
70-79 years old: 8%
60-69 years old: 3.6%
50-59 years old: 1.3%
40-49 years old: 0.4%
10-39 years old: 0.2%
0-9 years old: no fatalities

But 0.9% with no pre health conditions will die.

If total infected is Β£10m (it will be much higher) - that still 90,000 who had no previous health conditions - more than twice of all civilian deaths in UK in WW2.

Carlisle is already 10 times the UK average with cases per head of population and is now in the community with infected kids. Carlisle will be a hot spot thanks to schools such as Trinity and Austin Friars.

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11 Mar 2020 15:14 #383 by CCU
Replied by CCU on topic Coronavirus

Win or Lose, Up The Blues!

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11 Mar 2020 16:07 #384 by NORTHERNSOUL
Replied by NORTHERNSOUL on topic Coronavirus

Urban Designer wrote: It's true that if you are relatively young you will be ok and most won't notice they have it - be just like a cold or mild flu.

Death Rates by age:
DEATH RATE
all cases
80+ years old: 14.8%
70-79 years old: 8%
60-69 years old: 3.6%
50-59 years old: 1.3%
40-49 years old: 0.4%
10-39 years old: 0.2%
0-9 years old: no fatalities

But 0.9% with no pre health conditions will die.

If total infected is Β£10m (it will be much higher) - that still 90,000 who had no previous health conditions - more than twice of all civilian deaths in UK in WW2.

Carlisle is already 10 times the UK average with cases per head of population and is now in the community with infected kids. Carlisle will be a hot spot thanks to schools such as Trinity and Austin Friars.


What a complete load of bollocks Talk about wetting the bed

They declared 83 new cases nationwide today YES that's 83 [ not 83 thousand ] and it's pretty sure that currently more people each day are reaching the end of their treatment and being declared free of infection than are joining the list.

Why do you think the increase in new cases each day goes up by just a couple of dozen each day rather than by a factor of four that people were predicting? Because the policy of self-isolation is clearly working.

And you can only assume that people arriving on flights isn't considered to be a major issue or they would have been stopped weeks ago and its seen as better use of the available healthcare staff to be deployed in tracing and testing rather than taking the temperature of everybody arriving on every flight.

And what do you think will have gone on in Carlisle since the first case was declared ? Contacts will have been traced tested and if needed isolated Yes odd ones will slip thru the net but believe me a total not much more than single figures is not a hot spot. Or can you tell me when the figures there are going to jump from 20 to 10k in a week as they did at the beginning in Italy.

Where the hell do you get your 10 million figure from ? I.ll bet it doesn't reach anywhere near that in Italy never mind here.

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11 Mar 2020 16:48 #385 by seesaw50
Replied by seesaw50 on topic Coronavirus

NORTHERNSOUL wrote:

Urban Designer wrote: I was responding to a earlier post by Nothernsoul who said not many will be critical. From what I'm following the number critical isn't given but there might be other sources.


Nobody is critically ill from having the virus. People need to understand the virus doesn't kill you. In 99% of cases its no worse than having normal flu. But in a small number of people with existing illnesses, it reduces the capacity of your immune system to fight off those illnesses causing those people to become very ill with whatever it was they were originally suffering from and not from the virus itself.

And therefore it could be said that it's actually wrong to attribute any deaths in these circumstances to the virus when that wasn't what killed them. A bit like if somebody was killed in a car crash and it turns out that they'd tested positive for the virus saying that was responsible and not the injuries they suffered in the crash.


Think we need to stop thinking its flu...the worst part seems to be shortage of breath due to the virus attacking the lungs. And the cough that precedes it.....if you've ever had a cough that you cant stop it's quite frightening as you struggle to breathe and cough at the same time.
Hense the need for respirators and oxygen.

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11 Mar 2020 16:54 #386 by howoldboy
Replied by howoldboy on topic Coronavirus
Italy had 21 confirmed cases on Friday 21st February.

This had increased to 10,149 by Tuesday 10 March.

So time to get from 21 cases to over 10,000 in Italy was 18 days.

www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

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11 Mar 2020 17:24 #387 by CCU
Replied by CCU on topic Coronavirus
Officially a pandemic now:


Win or Lose, Up The Blues!

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11 Mar 2020 17:55 #388 by PaddockRanger

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11 Mar 2020 18:06 #389 by pacirv
Replied by pacirv on topic Coronavirus
All this about over reacting is rubbish it's time to take it seriously and take whatever actions are needed before we end up like Italy.
No point in waiting until the horse has bolted before shutting the stake door.
Cases if people mixing with loads of others before showing symptoms is scary stuff for those of us who are classed as at risk.

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11 Mar 2020 18:56 #390 by Urban Designer
Replied by Urban Designer on topic Coronavirus
I'll answer your points one at a time:

They declared 83 new cases nationwide today YES that's 83 [ not 83 thousand ] and it's pretty sure that currently more people each day are reaching the end of their treatment and being declared free of infection than are joining the list.

So far 18 have recovered out of the UK's 432 active cases. It usually takes 3-4 weeks to make a full recovery (even in the young).

Why do you think the increase in new cases each day goes up by just a couple of dozen each day rather than by a factor of four that people were predicting? Because the policy of self-isolation is clearly working.

83 New cases today - last Thursday it was 28 new cases - It's nearly trebled in 5 days.
They are only testing 1,500 a day to be increased to 8,000 a day - there will be more cases detected while deaths will obviously remain the same.

Most people won't know they have it - with 6 deaths so far ones with the virus will have been 600 about 2 weeks ago. Most will think its a cold and will have kept infecting - no fault of their own.

And you can only assume that people arriving on flights isn't considered to be a major issue or they would have been stopped weeks ago and its seen as better use of the available healthcare staff to be deployed in tracing and testing rather than taking the temperature of everybody arriving on every flight.

Dozens of countries has been infected by someone flying from Italy. Agree taking the temperature doesn't do anything - no symptoms for 2 weeks.

And what do you think will have gone on in Carlisle since the first case was declared ? Contacts will have been traced tested and if needed isolated Yes odd ones will slip thru the net but believe me a total not much more than single figures is not a hot spot. Or can you tell me when the figures there are going to jump from 20 to 10k in a week as they did at the beginning in Italy.

The first couple (who flu in from northern Italy) did self isolate.
Austin Friars were told to self isolate but it is the Trinity School shambles that has almost certainly let it loose in the community. Normal procedure is for a school to shut down and do a deep clean across the whole building. Again there are no symptoms for 2 weeks. I'm expecting the cases to double from 5,000 ((Monday 30th March) to 10,000 (Monday 6th April) - it will probably be sooner as cases are doubling quicker than expected.

[i]Where the hell do you get your 10 million figure from ? I.ll bet it doesn't reach anywhere near that in Italy never mind here.[/i]

10 million is a best case scenario projection I've done on the assumption that new cases double every week and there is a 1% death rate.
We are 2 weeks behind Italy and a week behind France, Germany and Spain. The reality is there will be a lot more than 10 million infected in the UK (we will be very lucky to have cure in a year, more likely 18 months).

This is not just another flu - flu killed about 17,000 - this will kill many times more

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11 Mar 2020 19:15 #391 by NORTHERNSOUL
Replied by NORTHERNSOUL on topic Coronavirus

pacirv wrote: All this about over reacting is rubbish it's time to take it seriously and take whatever actions are needed before we end up like Italy.
No point in waiting until the horse has bolted before shutting the stake door.
Cases if people mixing with loads of others before showing symptoms is scary stuff for those of us who are classed as at risk.


For [censored] sake once again you cannot compare the two countries and the spread of the virus in each.

Italy had a cluster of 20 people in a very small area who had returned from China who were allowed to go around infecting people unhindered for 14 days and as Howoldboy says upthread that went from 20 to 10k in two weeks.

We are now way more than 14 days since the first case was confirmed here Are we anywhere near 10k ? are we hell as like As of today were still at a fraction of that.

And as I .ve said before the reason for that is that the Italians spent two weeks doing absolutely nothing about it by which time it was in that Northern region out of control and way too late to stop the transmission not only to the rest of Italy but to the rest of Europe.

Now compare that with the situation here Nowhere have we allowed a cluster of 20 to form and have in at least two cases [ Bury and Brighton ] where it looked as if it might. The current containment measures in both those towns have been successful and it hasn't happened which must lead you to believe that will be the same result if it were it threaten to happen elsewhere.

And Seesaw that is complete and utter crap or would you like to tell me why the vast majority of people who.ve been confirmed to have caught it are at home recuperating and NOT in intensive care in Hospital which they would be if they were suffering in anything like the way you describe. The medications you are given while you recuperate in isolation at home are very simple paracetamol and Beecham's hot lemon that's all it takes to get you over its effects. The symptoms that you have no doubt pulled from somewhere on the internet are complete shit I checked today and there are less than a dozen people across the country in intensive care that have the virus but don't have existing ailments that are susceptible to developing into something much worse due to the virus attacking and destroying the Immune system that was fighting off the existing condition.

My information in the main comes from two sources one a man in Bury who has the virus and is halfway thru a recovery isolation at home and from a healthcare professional who has volunteered to be seconded from her normal role to do testing and tracing in the North Manchester area.

I really think its time certain people on here had their profiles stamped as being BEDWETTERS as they seem to spend their entire days trawling the internet looking for fantasy worst-case scenarios and then punting them on here as something that's definitely going to happen.

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11 Mar 2020 19:48 #392 by seesaw50
Replied by seesaw50 on topic Coronavirus
From NHS website
" symptoms of Coronavirus are
Cough
High Temperature
Shortage of breath "

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11 Mar 2020 19:52 #393 by NORTHERNSOUL
Replied by NORTHERNSOUL on topic Coronavirus

Urban Designer wrote: I'll answer your points one at a time:

They declared 83 new cases nationwide today YES that's 83 [ not 83 thousand ] and it's pretty sure that currently more people each day are reaching the end of their treatment and being declared free of infection than are joining the list.

So far 18 have recovered out of the UK's 432 active cases. It usually takes 3-4 weeks to make a full recovery (even in the young).

No idea where you get that figure from We declared our first cases nearly a month ago and as those people havnt died therefore they must have recovered Yes ? And you're right it can take up to a month but you're no longer able to infect others after 10 days and most people are able to come out of isolation and go back to work after two weeks

Why do you think the increase in new cases each day goes up by just a couple of dozen each day rather than by a factor of four that people were predicting? Because the policy of self-isolation is clearly working.

83 New cases today - last Thursday it was 28 new cases - It's nearly trebled in 5 days.
They are only testing 1,500 a day to be increased to 8,000 a day - there will be more cases detected while deaths will obviously remain the same.

Most people won't know they have it - with 6 deaths so far ones with the virus will have been 600 about 2 weeks ago. Most will think its a cold and will have kept infecting - no fault of their own.
But the figure that counts is not how many new cases a day its the total with it and current thinking says your containing it to the point where the total goes up by a factor of 4 each day for a solid week [ as it did in Northern Italy ] So on that basis if youre correct the total tomorrow will be 330 new cases and the day after 1320 Do you really believe that will be the case ?

And you can only assume that people arriving on flights isn't considered to be a major issue or they would have been stopped weeks ago and its seen as better use of the available healthcare staff to be deployed in tracing and testing rather than taking the temperature of everybody arriving on every flight.

Dozens of countries has been infected by someone flying from Italy. Agree taking the temperature doesn't do anything - no symptoms for 2 weeks.

Best way would have been to stop the flights and refuse entry to any Italians but i suspect the EU would have told us we couldn't do that. At least now the Airlies seem to have stepped up and done the ob off their own backs

And what do you think will have gone on in Carlisle since the first case was declared ? Contacts will have been traced tested and if needed isolated Yes odd ones will slip thru the net but believe me a total not much more than single figures is not a hot spot. Or can you tell me when the figures there are going to jump from 20 to 10k in a week as they did at the beginning in Italy.

The first couple (who flu in from northern Italy) did self isolate.
Austin Friars were told to self isolate but it is the Trinity School shambles that has almost certainly let it loose in the community. Normal procedure is for a school to shut down and do a deep clean across the whole building. Again there are no symptoms for 2 weeks. I'm expecting the cases to double from 5,000 ((Monday 30th March) to 10,000 (Monday 6th April) - it will probably be sooner as cases are doubling quicker than expected.

I rest my case if the authorities believed there was any chance of Carlisle getting as far down the line as Bury and Brighton did people there would know about it by now one of the first signs are healthcare professionals being driven about accompanied by police officers as they do the tracing work and as far as I know nobody on here has reported anything out of the ordinary beyond a few people voluntarily isolating themselves to recover

[i]Where the hell do you get your 10 million figure from ? I.ll bet it doesn't reach anywhere near that in Italy never mind here.[/i]

10 million is a best case scenario projection I've done on the assumption that new cases double every week and there is a 1% death rate.
We are 2 weeks behind Italy and a week behind France, Germany and Spain. The reality is there will be a lot more than 10 million infected in the UK (we will be very lucky to have cure in a year, more likely 18 months).

How many times do I have to tell you. You simply cannot compare the spread in Italy with the spread here they allowed a cluster to mutate unhindered growing from 20 to 10.000 in 10 days or would you like to show me somewhere in this country that anything like that has happened or is even likely to as its pretty clear the current measures in place appear to be on top of it.

This is not just another flu - flu killed about 17,000 - this will kill many times more


This isn't anywhere near as bad or virillant as ordinary flue but it has two factors which make it much more dangerous 1] There currently is no inoculation against it as there is with most other strains of flu and 2] It appears to attack the immune systems of people with ongoing health issues n a much more aggressive way than normal strains of influenza

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11 Mar 2020 19:58 #394 by NORTHERNSOUL
Replied by NORTHERNSOUL on topic Coronavirus

seesaw50 wrote: From NHS website
" symptoms of Coronavirus are
Cough
High Temperature
Shortage of breath "


And that sounds very much like normal flu doesn't it and nothing like

Think we need to stop thinking its flu...the worst part seems to be shortage of breath due to the virus attacking the lungs. And the cough that precedes it.....if you've ever had a cough that you cant stop it's quite frightening as you struggle to breathe and cough at the same time.
Hense the need for respirators and oxygen.

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11 Mar 2020 20:04 #395 by Dancingbear
Replied by Dancingbear on topic Coronavirus

nobbyblue wrote:

Dancingbear wrote: Rangers game next week in Leverkrusen behind closed doors as its in the worst affected area in Germany but over 1k Bayer fans allowed to the first leg in Glasgow tomorrow night. Now obviously theres a lot more chance of catching summat off the Celtic fans on sunday but id have thought letting 1000 Germans in from the worst hit area is madness. Think id be throwing a sicky if i was on passport control.


I think it's the Germans who should be worried about catching something. :-D


Could have won a fortune on that reply f I could have found a bookie daft enough ;)

There's only one way of life and that's your own!!!

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11 Mar 2020 20:09 #396 by orfc
Replied by orfc on topic Coronavirus

NORTHERNSOUL wrote:

Urban Designer wrote: I was responding to a earlier post by Nothernsoul who said not many will be critical. From what I'm following the number critical isn't given but there might be other sources.


Nobody is critically ill from having the virus. People need to understand the virus doesn't kill you. In 99% of cases its no worse than having normal flu. But in a small number of people with existing illnesses, it reduces the capacity of your immune system to fight off those illnesses causing those people to become very ill with whatever it was they were originally suffering from and not from the virus itself.

And therefore it could be said that it's actually wrong to attribute any deaths in these circumstances to the virus when that wasn't what killed them. A bit like if somebody was killed in a car crash and it turns out that they'd tested positive for the virus saying that was responsible and not the injuries they suffered in the crash.


That's equivalent to saying HIV/AIDS doesn't kill people, it's the illnesses and bugs that can now run free in someone's compromised immune system that do.

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11 Mar 2020 20:31 #397 by Mullen103
Replied by Mullen103 on topic Coronavirus
I know what NS is saying but without the virus the person with other diseases/illnesses can’t fight them as the body is using all the resources to fight the virus.

My immune systems buggered, I wasn’t worried at all but with the trinity teacher having it it’s probably spread around Carlisle now.

At least we’re not Stockport

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11 Mar 2020 21:47 #398 by spaffhead
Replied by spaffhead on topic Coronavirus

NORTHERNSOUL wrote:

Urban Designer wrote: I was responding to a earlier post by Nothernsoul who said not many will be critical. From what I'm following the number critical isn't given but there might be other sources.


Nobody is critically ill from having the virus. People need to understand the virus doesn't kill you. In 99% of cases its no worse than having normal flu. But in a small number of people with existing illnesses, it reduces the capacity of your immune system to fight off those illnesses causing those people to become very ill with whatever it was they were originally suffering from and not from the virus itself.

And therefore it could be said that it's actually wrong to attribute any deaths in these circumstances to the virus when that wasn't what killed them. A bit like if somebody was killed in a car crash and it turns out that they'd tested positive for the virus saying that was responsible and not the injuries they suffered in the crash.


Jesus wept, what on earth are you talking about you loonatic?

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11 Mar 2020 22:04 #399 by Chilledsilly
Replied by Chilledsilly on topic Coronavirus
Think a few people on here are deluded ... clearly not bothered about people that will either die or suffer very badly ... and if they are just bothered about themeselves ... what about if it mutated into something more sinister ,and comes back in a 2nd wave in the winter.. ?

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11 Mar 2020 22:26 #400 by NORTHERNSOUL
Replied by NORTHERNSOUL on topic Coronavirus

Chilledsilly wrote: Think a few people on here are deluded ... clearly not bothered about people that will either die or suffer very badly ... and if they are just bothered about themeselves ... what about if it mutated into something more sinister ,and comes back in a 2nd wave in the winter.. ?


Well, people on here wetting their beds aren't going to stop that happening tho is it ?

Yes, people will die earlier than they might have done but if we can keep it that its only killing elderly people with existing serious illnesses which would probably kill them anyway sooner or later that's got to be better than it killing family men in their 30.s hasn't it.

People should watch the little information graphic on the BBC Ten Oclock news tonight about how tracing works and what it involves.

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