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14 Mar 2019 18:09 #2151 by Laffy
Replied by Laffy on topic Brexit
Tide has just turned-May is going to score a home run.Labour will get the blame for err...not having a clear position

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14 Mar 2019 18:29 - 14 Mar 2019 18:30 #2152 by CCU
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Win or Lose, Up The Blues!
Last edit: 14 Mar 2019 18:30 by CCU.

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14 Mar 2019 19:24 #2153 by Dancingbear
Replied by Dancingbear on topic Brexit

Laffy wrote: Tide has just turned-May is going to score a home run.Labour will get the blame for err...not having a clear position


Tide has changed? You mean she’s gonna bore everyone into submission or make them all lose the will to live.

There's only one way of life and that's your own!!!

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14 Mar 2019 19:31 #2154 by yoonited
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Hungarian PM says he'll veto any request for extension of Article 50.

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14 Mar 2019 19:34 #2155 by munchymagic
Replied by munchymagic on topic Brexit
Getting even sillier now.

So if we cannot leave with a no deal after the vote and they are not accepting the new one and there is fat chance of re-negotiating shite with the EU as they have already stated so if Italy say no to extending the negotiations then we will have to withdraw regardless of a deal or not on 29th March.

My Champagne is on ice but I reckon it will happen.

The government are scared that once out of the EU people will adapt and it will become normal to us all and any notion of returning will be met with a massive laugh - that is if it still exists by then.

We will not have to pay anything into something that is a distant blight on our history.

Deckchair will be living in some commune somewhere around the world by this time begging to come back into the country that he hates so much with its stupid democracy and all that.
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14 Mar 2019 19:38 - 14 Mar 2019 19:42 #2156 by seesaw50
Replied by seesaw50 on topic Brexit
Mr Orban will be the next to seek to leave...you know where you are with a right wing "dictator" if Hungary does ask to leave there'll be no messing about I'd be guessing

To have been born Cumbrian
is to have won the lottery of life !

Last edit: 14 Mar 2019 19:42 by seesaw50.
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14 Mar 2019 20:21 #2157 by DeckchairBlue
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Still not sure when or where I have said I hate this country or democracy Munch.

We simply have different ideas about what democracy is and what would be best for this country.

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14 Mar 2019 20:27 #2158 by munchymagic
Replied by munchymagic on topic Brexit

DeckchairBlue wrote: Still not sure when or where I have said I hate this country or democracy Munch.

We simply have different ideas about what democracy is and what would be best for this country.


Go with it then DB and accept the change like I would have done if the result had gone the other way.

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14 Mar 2019 20:59 #2159 by Laffy
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The remainers lost a vote to have a second vote.Oh the irony...best of three?

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14 Mar 2019 21:16 #2160 by howoldboy
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To an impartial observer it seems that the remainers lost a vote but have won ever since.

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14 Mar 2019 23:39 #2161 by orfc
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"Hello, long grass"
"Hello, brexit"

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15 Mar 2019 01:05 #2162 by chedderbob247
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Let’s just say that we do leave on the 29th March under Mays deal (we won’t, and it certainly won’t be no deal). The great thing about this is that everyone that voted leave has actually lost!

The Brexit available under the deal proposed by May is nothing like the Brexit that even the most casual brexiteer would have wanted, never mind the hardcore branch of brexiteers.

It is at the point now that if Mays deal goes through (it wont) that actually brexiteers will be claiming victory when actually it is a huge, huge failure from what they wanted.

#BrexitNotBrexit could not be a more relevant hashtag in this case. Change in relationship? Yes. Brexit? Not in a million years.

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15 Mar 2019 01:10 #2163 by chedderbob247
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Laffy wrote: The remainers lost a vote to have a second vote.Oh the irony...best of three?


What are you talking about? They haven’t lost anything. The second referendum vote was never going to do anything other than fail today.

Of course Labour were not going to back a second referendum on the very thing that will form the basis of their manifesto in the election that they are looking to force.

Said it over a year ago. Brexit won’t happen and it will be because a party goes into an election promising something very different to the thing that people thought they were getting. Said party will win.

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15 Mar 2019 07:08 #2164 by griff
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Correct. I’ve heard May’s deal described as the Hotel California Brexit. You can check out any time you like, but you can NEVER LEAVE.

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15 Mar 2019 07:14 #2165 by Laffy
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I think any Brexit will do at this juncture-and Corbyn would be over the moon with it

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15 Mar 2019 08:01 #2166 by DeckchairBlue
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Laffy wrote: I think any Brexit will do at this juncture-and Corbyn would be over the moon with it


You are mental.

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15 Mar 2019 08:06 #2167 by BlueAl
Replied by BlueAl on topic Brexit

chedderbob247 wrote: Let’s just say that we do leave on the 29th March under Mays deal (we won’t, and it certainly won’t be no deal). The great thing about this is that everyone that voted leave has actually lost!

The Brexit available under the deal proposed by May is nothing like the Brexit that even the most casual brexiteer would have wanted, never mind the hardcore branch of brexiteers.

It is at the point now that if Mays deal goes through (it wont) that actually brexiteers will be claiming victory when actually it is a huge, huge failure from what they wanted.

#BrexitNotBrexit could not be a more relevant hashtag in this case. Change in relationship? Yes. Brexit? Not in a million years.


Please explain what's great about the majority that voted leave not getting Brexit?

We are living in a divided country, that's going to take years to heal. There's a lot of very angry people out there. If people don't get the Brexit they voted for many will react in a extreme way. Certainly can't see anything 'great' about any of it.
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15 Mar 2019 10:20 #2168 by thesilentone
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chedderbob247 wrote: Let’s just say that we do leave on the 29th March under Mays deal (we won’t, and it certainly won’t be no deal). The great thing about this is that everyone that voted leave has actually lost!

The Brexit available under the deal proposed by May is nothing like the Brexit that even the most casual brexiteer would have wanted, never mind the hardcore branch of brexiteers.

It is at the point now that if Mays deal goes through (it wont) that actually brexiteers will be claiming victory when actually it is a huge, huge failure from what they wanted.

#BrexitNotBrexit could not be a more relevant hashtag in this case. Change in relationship? Yes. Brexit? Not in a million years.


So, if we take back control of our borders, and are no longer shackled by EU laws, as well as remaining a sovereign country without the threat of federalisation, in addition to keeping the pound sterling as well as being able to trade with the growing markets of the world economy and upcoming countries, we have lost ? How do you work that out ?

Keeping London as the second largest trading center in the world and stopping the krauts moving it to Frankfurt is worth a few bob, Mrs Merkel could not wait and had a whole bag full of regulation waiting.

Cartels fail, they always have, the sooner the EU collapses, the sooner the people of its former members can get back to investing in themselves and there own futures through trade, as opposed to handouts and begging bowls.

The EU Farming Policy is a joke and misuse of public finance on a biblical scale to name but one of the historical schemes.

They P away £100,000,000 a year moving the Parliament from Brussels to Strasbourg for one week a month, have you every heard of such stupidity !

You could get a few food parcels, blankets and woolly hats for EU homeless for £2,000,000 a week !!
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15 Mar 2019 11:46 - 15 Mar 2019 11:49 #2169 by DeckchairBlue
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I thought Remain were supposed to be the peddlers of project fear ? You pretty much trotted out all of the fearmongering anti-EU bollocks that you had in your head, the majority if not all of which have been debunked.

We weren't going to be forced to give up the pound, unless we chose to.
We weren't going to be part of a federal Europe, unless we wanted to.
We aren't shackled by EU laws, because we have a Veto so only adopt the ones we want to.
Brexit will, and already has, royally [censored] over London being a major financial centre and hand that over to Frankfurt.
www.google.com/amp/s/amp.insurancejourna...018/12/12/511701.htm
Last edit: 15 Mar 2019 11:49 by DeckchairBlue.

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15 Mar 2019 12:54 #2170 by Laffy
Replied by Laffy on topic Brexit
I voted afire Brexit to control our borders-nothing more.Next time someone bleats on about poor public services,poor NHS,poor teachers,lack of housing,poor anyone who relies on our creaking infrastructure,remember why.Its not down to the Tories or Labour-it’s down to the fact we are an island and our population growth is unsustainable.

I would happily vote for a Brexit which ONLY gave us the right to determine our borders.Its the elephant in the room in the EU.
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15 Mar 2019 13:01 #2171 by Laffy
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Sorry-voted for rather than afire.

May now has the Brexiteers where she wants them-and they will hopefully all now tow the line.Another offer of finance to the DUP will bring them onside and off we go-a reasonably soft Brexit.

There was a guy on R4 who analysed all the permutations about Brexit and concluded that May’s deal fell smack in the middle of them.

If she pulls this off, it will be a magnificent achievement by her

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15 Mar 2019 13:13 #2172 by Dancingbear
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Wonder which way this Queensland senator would have voted had he been a MP here.


There's only one way of life and that's your own!!!

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15 Mar 2019 13:14 #2173 by Vogel
Replied by Vogel on topic Brexit
I get what you are saying but since the referendum eu immigration has fallen but at the same time migration from the rest of the world, of which we have ‘control’ has risen. Presumably because the demand for migrant workers in the economy still exists. My worry is whatever outcome we get at the end of this fiasco the majority of us will be unhappy with it. Any version of leave most remainers won’t like and there were so many interpretations of leave most brexiteers will be unhappy also.

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15 Mar 2019 13:21 #2174 by DeckchairBlue
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Dancingbear wrote: Wonder which way this Queensland senator would have voted had he been a MP here.


Nothing like a good bit of victim blaming to comfort people after a massacre.

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15 Mar 2019 15:16 #2175 by Flatcap
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How do you take control of your borders when the only land border between us and the EU is an open border?

Also we will get a second vote.
Even if it is just in the European elections. :-)

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15 Mar 2019 16:11 #2176 by yoonited
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15 Mar 2019 17:38 - 15 Mar 2019 17:40 #2177 by chedderbob247
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BlueAl wrote:

chedderbob247 wrote: Let’s just say that we do leave on the 29th March under Mays deal (we won’t, and it certainly won’t be no deal). The great thing about this is that everyone that voted leave has actually lost!

The Brexit available under the deal proposed by May is nothing like the Brexit that even the most casual brexiteer would have wanted, never mind the hardcore branch of brexiteers.

It is at the point now that if Mays deal goes through (it wont) that actually brexiteers will be claiming victory when actually it is a huge, huge failure from what they wanted.

#BrexitNotBrexit could not be a more relevant hashtag in this case. Change in relationship? Yes. Brexit? Not in a million years.


Please explain what's great about the majority that voted leave not getting Brexit?

We are living in a divided country, that's going to take years to heal. There's a lot of very angry people out there. If people don't get the Brexit they voted for many will react in a extreme way. Certainly can't see anything 'great' about any of it.


To understand that you just need to aknowledge the fact that of all the people that voted ‘yes’ to leave, within that vote there are many different versions of what ‘yes’ I want to leave means.

Two of the most commonly referred to are the soft Brexit (which is what is being delivered by May) and the Hard Brexit.

Just having those two options has immediately halved the leave vote and split it in two. Then you add the no deal bunch and you have another group of people to split the vote with.

Despite the fact that I think ‘Brexit’ will be hugely damaging to the UK (That’s my opinion and I respect there are those that have a differing one) it is an absolute FACT that ‘Brexit’ cannot be delivered in a way that satisfies all those that voted leave, because there are so many different versions of what Leave means to the people all bundled into that yes vote.

Like I keep stating. ‘Brexit’ cannot and will not happen. Personally I don’t think the May deal will happen at all, but let’s says that Mays deal does get through. It is NOT ‘Brexit’. Change in relationship with the EU? Yes. Brexit? Nah - ‘Brexit’ is something that doesn’t exist. There are so many versions of it that it simply cannot be delivered.
Last edit: 15 Mar 2019 17:40 by chedderbob247.
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15 Mar 2019 20:03 #2178 by thesilentone
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chedderbob247 wrote:

BlueAl wrote:

chedderbob247 wrote: Let’s just say that we do leave on the 29th March under Mays deal (we won’t, and it certainly won’t be no deal). The great thing about this is that everyone that voted leave has actually lost!

The Brexit available under the deal proposed by May is nothing like the Brexit that even the most casual brexiteer would have wanted, never mind the hardcore branch of brexiteers.

It is at the point now that if Mays deal goes through (it wont) that actually brexiteers will be claiming victory when actually it is a huge, huge failure from what they wanted.

#BrexitNotBrexit could not be a more relevant hashtag in this case. Change in relationship? Yes. Brexit? Not in a million years.


Please explain what's great about the majority that voted leave not getting Brexit?

We are living in a divided country, that's going to take years to heal. There's a lot of very angry people out there. If people don't get the Brexit they voted for many will react in a extreme way. Certainly can't see anything 'great' about any of it.


To understand that you just need to aknowledge the fact that of all the people that voted ‘yes’ to leave, within that vote there are many different versions of what ‘yes’ I want to leave means.

Two of the most commonly referred to are the soft Brexit (which is what is being delivered by May) and the Hard Brexit.

Just having those two options has immediately halved the leave vote and split it in two. Then you add the no deal bunch and you have another group of people to split the vote with.

Despite the fact that I think ‘Brexit’ will be hugely damaging to the UK (That’s my opinion and I respect there are those that have a differing one) it is an absolute FACT that ‘Brexit’ cannot be delivered in a way that satisfies all those that voted leave, because there are so many different versions of what Leave means to the people all bundled into that yes vote.

Like I keep stating. ‘Brexit’ cannot and will not happen. Personally I don’t think the May deal will happen at all, but let’s says that Mays deal does get through. It is NOT ‘Brexit’. Change in relationship with the EU? Yes. Brexit? Nah - ‘Brexit’ is something that doesn’t exist. There are so many versions of it that it simply cannot be delivered.


One thing that Brexit has delivered is massive reading between the lines, ambiguity, predictions with statements and more bull sxxt than you can shake a stick at.

From day 1, leaving the EU was a first, a clean sheet of paper, no agenda, no blue print, nothing, they've made it up as they went along. The EU MUST see the UK fail, it is the writing well and truly on the wall for them.
Merkel and Macrons dream dead, and well and truly buried.
In the UK Merkel and Macron still have a few in the chorus line, but I'm sorry the fat lady approaches....

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15 Mar 2019 22:35 #2179 by seesaw50
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Dancingbear wrote: Wonder which way this Queensland senator would have voted had he been a MP here.


Well he/they wouldn't be in such a position would they.
That's what I like about Australians, they say what everybody else thinks no diplomatic language in that country.

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15 Mar 2019 22:51 #2180 by Dentonholmersimpson
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Would it not be great if, for one day the world had to live like Jim Carey in ''Liar,Liar''.

We would then find how mant hypocrites are in our parliament.

Or to be a fly on the wall in Boris's or Abbott's house.

Having said that, I think most of us know anyway.

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16 Mar 2019 08:51 #2181 by shaldon1
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I think the tide has turned. The fact that both the Irish PM and DUP leader were at white house for Trump meeting on Thursday says it all for me.

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16 Mar 2019 08:57 #2182 by shaldon1
Replied by shaldon1 on topic Brexit
Just back from Malta where we visit every year. Free movement of people in EU is making the Maltese wake up. They are becoming angry. The min. wage is 4.5 euros per hour and rent for one bed flat is 600 euros per month.I have no doubt that EU will break up given time.

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16 Mar 2019 09:10 #2183 by orfc
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Just passing through frankfurt flughafen. Passport control for EU/EEA passports - automatic gates - 2 minutes. Rest of the world - manual check - queue snaked back 50 yards to security. Brexits gonna cause a few missed flights

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16 Mar 2019 09:51 #2184 by Laffy
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My confidence in the May deal is increasing by the hour-DUP will swing it.

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16 Mar 2019 10:12 - 16 Mar 2019 10:13 #2185 by griff
Replied by griff on topic Brexit
Laffy - you’re a businessman so, in the interests of full disclosure, what do you see as the effects on your Company/s of the various options?

Short term and long term:

1 No deal
2 May’s deal
3 Article 50 delay of, say, 6 months
Last edit: 16 Mar 2019 10:13 by griff.

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16 Mar 2019 10:19 - 16 Mar 2019 10:19 #2186 by thesilentone
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shaldon1 wrote: Just back from Malta where we visit every year. Free movement of people in EU is making the Maltese wake up. They are becoming angry. The min. wage is 4.5 euros per hour and rent for one bed flat is 600 euros per month.I have no doubt that EU will break up given time.


If I were an assylam seeker who was willing to put my family's life at risk, by setting out across an ocean in a inflatable and ended up in Malta, I'd think " God hates me"............
Last edit: 16 Mar 2019 10:19 by thesilentone.

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16 Mar 2019 11:16 #2187 by Laffy
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Griff

The biggest issue of all is drift and uncertainty-some businesses are making serious money out of the malaise through currency depreciation but that’s a short term thing.Medium term it’s bleak as the uncertainty factor kicks in-we are well in that phase now.Businesses tend to work on capital cycles supported by banks-banks are starting to become more cautious.

The hotel in Edinburgh I own with others had a fantastic year last year-cheap currency brought more US and European tourists with an uplift in room rate of around 15pc.This year,the market is down 15pc due to the drift and new models like Airbnb exploiting the gap.I think there will be some real horror stories across the whole travel/airline sector this year.We haven’t seen anything yet.

The engineering businesses I have an interest in are largely UK sales based-a weak pound is hurting us in buying European components but we are not seeing any sales weakness.

I don’t buy the Brexit thing with the car industry-it’s moving to electric and gathering pace as the typical 6 year automotive cycle unwinds.We are in serious danger of building cars and engines that nobody wants.I think the Toyota plant in Derby is next sadly.

So in the short term, the endless drift is starting to bite and will only deteriorate further without a formal deal.

I think a no deal exit will cause a bit of short term pain but it would be months, not years.Our economy is very diverse and resilient-and flexible.The pound would take another hit but that makes exporting very attractive.Its generally agreed there is a wall of money ready to pour into the UK when this is finally sorted out.

Longer term I don’t think we have anything to fear from leaving the EU-the EU project is on its last legs in my view and we can turn the tap on and off on the labour market as required.

I think setting a long extension would be absolute madness-more drift, more uncertainty,no doubt punishment from the EU.I sat in front of the telly yesterday morning listening to an Irish minister advising us how to behave FFS-this from a country which is totally dependant on the UK and the tax avoidance industry!How far can we fall as the 5th largest economy in the world?Taking a lesson from a country fighting to avoid collecting billions of back taxes from Apple as it would send the wrong message to its other US inward investors.

I look forward to getting the Brexit deal over the line then pushing back a bit in the next negotiations.We were never going to get a perfect deal first time around.
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16 Mar 2019 11:40 #2188 by shaldon1
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SILENTONE.
Please be advised I am not talking about the people in boats I am talking about people coming to Malta from EU countries.

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16 Mar 2019 11:43 #2189 by griff
Replied by griff on topic Brexit
Thanks for that Laffy. Like a lot of business folk you seem to be saying that Brexit isn’t the road to hell that many are prophesying, and that ‘no deal’ may only give short-term pain. That’s what I thought too. I’ve been watching what many economists have been saying and although they’re split on the short-term effects, the large majority think that our future is very bright in the medium to long-term.

The problem is that we’re not led by businessmen or economists, we have politicians with vested interests to contend with. Exactly the wrong people to be handling brexit. Politics in this country needs a complete shake-up and a fresh start. Anyone who sets up a serious, moderate, centrist party now could clean up because of the increasing number of voters who are fed up with the way that both sides of the House have handled all this. And I mean a proper political party that would appeal to current MPs as well as those who might stand if they though that they could change things. Those that jumped ship recently are independents now which is a different thing and are currently helping to cement the status quo by continuing this impasse.

We need to learn from all this, and quickly.

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16 Mar 2019 12:11 #2190 by Moylesey
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Can someone explain how it’s democratic for Theresa May to be allowed more than one meaningful vote?
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16 Mar 2019 12:17 #2191 by thesilentone
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shaldon1 wrote: SILENTONE.
Please be advised I am not talking about the people in boats I am talking about people coming to Malta from EU countries.



Malta = Corruption on a grand scale............

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16 Mar 2019 12:51 #2192 by orfc
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Griff, would this be the same economists that didn't predict the crash 10 years ago?

They're like weathermen, they can predict trends ok, but the extreme events that cause the damage always take them by surprise

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16 Mar 2019 13:12 #2193 by griff
Replied by griff on topic Brexit

orfc wrote: Griff, would this be the same economists that didn't predict the crash 10 years ago?

They're like weathermen, they can predict trends ok, but the extreme events that cause the damage always take them by surprise


Fair point mate, and they’re not all on the same page, but financial modelling has got much better since then (still not perfect though) so they’re more likely to get it right this time.

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16 Mar 2019 13:39 #2194 by carwash
Replied by carwash on topic Brexit
Laffy, you're trying to give the impression the pound has been weak against all other currencies. At times it has been weak but over the last year the story has been the strength of the US Dollar which has gained about 5% against sterling. The pound has strengthened or at least held its own against nearly every other world currency. For UK car component companies it is the weakness of the Polish zloty and Czech Koruna which is a problem.

I agree though with your comments on travel businesses. I've heard Ryanair advance bookings are well down on expectations. It's just as well as they can't take delivery of all those new Boeing 737 Max 8s.

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16 Mar 2019 14:01 #2195 by Laffy
Replied by Laffy on topic Brexit
Just my view but you pay peanuts, you get monkeys.The question of MP pay has been the subject of much criticism but frankly they are paid less than a two year qualified accountant-that cannot be right and it’s now showing.

On Ryanair,I think all that stuff last year about schedules etc was a cunning plan to cut flights and routes.Ski Val went down yesterday-45 year old ski company which you would think would be immune.

Don’t underestimate the value of being able to devalue your currency-we used to own a company called CV Travel in Greece.We used to book the beds from owners in Feb and pay for them in October-Greece used to devalue every summer to stay competitive and it made us a million every year in currency shift-until they joined the Euro!!Next thing Greece is in trouble because they can’t devalue and we lost a cool million each year from the bottom line.

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16 Mar 2019 15:13 #2196 by thesilentone
Replied by thesilentone on topic Brexit
Agree on MP's salary's, you pay peanuts and you get monkeys.

We need about half the MP's, earning twice the current salary who have been involved in a business prior.

However, there is about as much chance of that happening as Marko voting Tory..........

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16 Mar 2019 17:01 #2197 by DeckchairBlue
Replied by DeckchairBlue on topic Brexit

thesilentone wrote: Agree on MP's salary's, you pay peanuts and you get monkeys.

We need about half the MP's, earning twice the current salary who have been involved in a business prior.

However, there is about as much chance of that happening as Marko voting Tory..........


Also won't happen because not all parties would see business experience as a major plus. The conservatives would but parties to the left or centre wouldn't.

I think that more importantly is that cabinet ministers should have a decent knowledge of the area they are in charge of rather than having those such as Grayling, Gove and Hunt who get moved round [censored] up departments.

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16 Mar 2019 22:28 #2198 by NORTHERNSOUL
Replied by NORTHERNSOUL on topic Brexit

yoonited wrote: Hungarian PM says he'll veto any request for extension of Article 50.


Well, Big Nige is now saying he knows of three leaders who will be happy to vote against any extension so with that in mind everyone voting to accept Mays deal next week will actually be voting for a No Deal exit at the end of the month. Sort of Karma really all the pissing about they've done and someone else takes it out of their hands.

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16 Mar 2019 22:32 #2199 by NORTHERNSOUL
Replied by NORTHERNSOUL on topic Brexit

DeckchairBlue wrote: Still not sure when or where I have said I hate this country or democracy Munch.

We simply have different ideas about what democracy is and what would be best for this country.


Democracy is a victory for the side who can get the most people to vote for them by WHATEVER means.

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16 Mar 2019 22:35 #2200 by Taffy-P
Replied by Taffy-P on topic Brexit
We’re not leaving as the days go by I’m more sure of it thank goodness

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