Monday, 05 September 2022
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With a new Prime Minister to be announced today (Mon 5th Sept 2022), we’ll start a fresh thread for all the discussion, and also use this one for any other Westminster/Politics related stuff going forward.

The old thread is now locked as Boris and his Government are replaced.

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I’m quietly confident Truss will see this through and I don’t think we should be taking economic advice from the Ginger Growler-that would not be in the country’s interest.

Truss needs to get on the front foot and make the valid point that we are one of the world’s largest economies, have one of the lowest debt ratios, yet the market thinks our debt cost should be higher than Greece and Italy.We are not a basket case and I doubt the cancelling of the 45pc tax rate is enough to cause it.

Meanwhile, the fall in gas and oil prices should help a lot.

On the pound, a weaker currency is no bad thing if you want to help exports.That goal is something I would want as we are too reliant on imports and have been for many years, including cheap labour.

Vogel-the crash was a global thing, but it was exacerbated by lax regulation encouraged by Brown-he did say no more boom and bust under his watch.


... cheap labour you say... bad news Laffy. Liz is all set to loosen immigration rules!
2 months ago
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#316912
Yes-for key industries and sectors.I will admit I do find this morally wrong-stealing qualified labour from largely poorer countries isn’t cricket.Never sat well with me.
2 months ago
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#316913
I’m quietly confident Truss will see this through and I don’t think we should be taking economic advice from the Ginger Growler-that would not be in the country’s interest.

Truss needs to get on the front foot and make the valid point that we are one of the world’s largest economies, have one of the lowest debt ratios, yet the market thinks our debt cost should be higher than Greece and Italy.We are not a basket case and I doubt the cancelling of the 45pc tax rate is enough to cause it.

Meanwhile, the fall in gas and oil prices should help a lot.

On the pound, a weaker currency is no bad thing if you want to help exports.That goal is something I would want as we are too reliant on imports and have been for many years, including cheap labour.

Vogel-the crash was a global thing, but it was exacerbated by lax regulation encouraged by Brown-he did say no more boom and bust under his watch.


Do me a favour Laffy as I don’t subscribe to the Times could you post the report from 9.30 pm this evening about Labours 17 point Poll lead

Cheers
2 months ago
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#316914
I think you will find the lax regulations came from the deregulation of the city in 86. Brown went along with it as so much tax revenue was coming in.

However back to the present it’s astonishing how naive Truss and Co have been and they have completely lost control of the narrative. You would expect a new PM to get a bounce in the polls but their flurry of uncosted, ideological and tone deaf announcements have gone down like a lead balloon with everyone. (Laffy excepted of course)
2 months ago
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#316915
Yes-will try.Still two years out matey

The reason the dollar is rising is very simple-the Fed is raising interest rates fast and in times of turmoil, you don’t bet against the dollar.Of course, that merry go round is good for US imports but bad for exports.All down to the after effects of the pandemic
2 months ago
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#316917
“The reason the dollar is rising is very simple-the Fed is raising interest rates fast and in times of turmoil, you don’t bet against the dollar”

Are you serious? Do you actually believe that’s all that’s going on here and the timing with Kwarteng’s statement is just coincidence? You must have read what financial analysts outside the UK are saying.
2 months ago
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#316918


Thanks as I thought it’s cutting the 45% tax rate has gone down like a lead balloon I was watching an interview with Gerald Lyon’s (chief economic adviser to government) on Channel 4 news he was absolutely shocked to hear about the cut to the 45 % top rate he words were “ I couldn’t believe my ears”
2 months ago
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#316920
Several major lenders have now withdrawn mortgage lending due to the political and financial uncertainty. So, huge housing price crash on it's way.
2 months ago
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#316923
Sorry Vogel-that’s the main reason.Most major currencies are falling against the dollar as a result

There are other reasons of course-the Truss budget being one, but not the main reason
2 months ago
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#316928
Several major lenders have now withdrawn mortgage lending due to the political and financial uncertainty. So, huge housing price crash on it's way.


Won't be a bad thing. More people will be able to get on the housing ladder.
2 months ago
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#316930
I don’t think house prices will crash-and I think the hysteria will calm down.Massive overreaction in my view.

Just my view-I never panic
2 months ago
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#316931
I think we are in unchartered territory for house prices. We have never experienced interest rates rising from such low levels so quickly before. That said there is a desperate shortage of some types of houses, e.g. nice 4 bedroomed houses close to good schools. Where I live in North London you're looking at around £1.2 million to get that type of house. With higher interest rates, I could quite easily see demand dry up and if people are forced sellers having taken on too big a mortgage then those houses might struggle to sell for £1 million. Is a 16% fall a crash?

I probably agree with Laffy on a national basis. As long as there are mortgages available then house prices won't 'crash' but you'd expect some price reductions to shift less desirable properties. In real terms, adjusted for inflation, house prices are already falling.
2 months ago
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#316933
I spent a lot of time on calls with agents last couple of days-the top end of the market is filling but bottom end is robust.

I can’t help felling this whole thing is an attack by traders who saw a chink in the pound armer with the budget-time for cool heads
2 months ago
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#316937
I spent a lot of time on calls with agents last couple of days-the top end of the market is filling but bottom end is robust.

I can’t help felling this whole thing is an attack by traders who saw a chink in the pound armer with the budget-time for cool heads


Yep that’s the spin Conservative central office is saying and you’re given them a tax cut and bigger bonuses are they never happy !!!!
2 months ago
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#316941
That’s why I have been relatively successful Taffy-I listen to people and then form a view.From all persuasions.

It’s only 3 years since you were drinking at the bar with Corbyn-now you are the party of sound governance, despite the same old faces being at the bar
2 months ago
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#316942
That’s why I have been relatively successful Taffy-I listen to people and then form a view.From all persuasions.

It’s only 3 years since you were drinking at the bar with Corbyn-now you are the party of sound governance, despite the same old faces being at the bar


I was never a Corbyn fan but even his spending plans have been dwarfed by this lot At least he was going to spend on public services and high speed broadband not Tax cuts for millionaires

I’m hearing they might be a U turn coming or at least a watering down of the tax cuts over the next week or two !!!!
2 months ago
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#316944
We shall see-to be frank, I do f believe cutting the higher rate caused the pound to fall as Starmer claims

I see one of your lot has been suspended for suggesting the Chancellor is white-nice!
2 months ago
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#316946
Don’t believe !
2 months ago
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#316950


Blame,

Remainers,Covid,Russia,The BBC ,The Labour Party,The EU,Joe Biden,China,Woke or even The bloody boogie
2 months ago
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#316952
It's rare I watch tv in the morning but today I switched it on while I had a cuppa.

Gary Neville was on BBC being interviewed by the Good Morning team. Granted they gave him an easier ride than many get but I had no idea he was such a political animal or that he was so well versed in politician speak. For me, he talked a lot more sense than he often does about football.

I think Andy Burnham may need to watch his back, despite Neville denying it.
2 months ago
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#316953
I like Rupa Huq, Konnie Huq's older sister. She campaigned during Covid for Vitamin D to be recommended to reduce the likelihood of serious illness. She is outspoken and wasn't afraid to say what she thinks of Kwasi Kwarteng. Starmer was furious but she has raised her profile and I reckon she will still get a health minister job in 2024.
2 months ago
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#316954
We can blame it on Jackson-he’s long gone.

https://youtu.be/nqxVMLVe62U
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