orfc wrote:
Marko, one thing I've learned as a researcher when reading a report or a paper or a set of results is to ask 'what's their bias'? It's obvious why a russian website wants to big up russian capabilities, and it took 2 minutes to find out that the group who wrote the guardian article is an anti-nuclear think-tank -
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_American_S..._Information_Council - who are obviously going to be looking for reasons to end trident.
"the ship above sea or aeroplane identifies the target " - How are these ships and planes going to spot a submarine that's 300m deep and anywhere in 82 million square kilometres? And what stops the ship or aeroplane getting shot up? They're a lot easier to spot above water than anything below it. The biggest laugh I got from reading this new frontier of submarine detection stuff was detecting "tiny ripples on the surface from a sub passing underneath" - because the north atlantic is smooth and flat enough to detect ripples. And doesn't have chaotic 20 foot waves in it at all.
In the end you would still need 3 billion of these drones to have a half chance of spotting a trident sub at any given time out at sea.
I totally agree about your bias but the author David Hambling is not a member of CND or any similar organisations, if he was he couldn't work for the American military. And just because CND support the findings of a report doesn't make it automatically wrong. That a Russian website wants to big up Russian capabilities isn't automatic. During the Ukraine crisis the US military told us they were trying to develop satellites with greater than 0,5m panchromatic while we knew these were already in existence and operating because we got security footage from them in Afghanistan. So who knows what their strategy is, playing down what they have could be their tactic.
Currently the search ships can be targets, but you have to identify all of them and take all of them out before they issue a launch signal. If they work like normal missile systems you can monitor signals but if they are in Russian territorial waters behind missile defence systems who knows how you do that.
Your comment 'In the end you would still need 3 billion of these drones to have a half chance of spotting a trident sub at any given time out at sea' is incorrect. Firstly a British sub is going to be in the North Sea or towards Scandinavia so the area to be covered is greatly greatly, reduced. The scanning for the sub is done by the ship/aircraft which can see down to 600m (from the US video), this then orders the drone to fire- so I'm guessing but 20 drones might be enough if we are only talking missile launch.
The second point though is the most important. All of this technology currently exists so it is simply a case of improving it. If you work in research you know that projects which have military applications attract funding the fastest. In addition communication is an area that arguably has had the fastest technical growth in the last 20 years. If growth continues at it's current rate it is inconceivable that we won't be able to see these things and we are certainly not going to have to wait until 2030 for that.
The ultimate measure of this is that MoD are taking it seriously. If they recognise the threat, current or future, then we should assume the threat exists.