TOPIC: The EU referendum: Remain or Out

IN
finally made my mind up the thought of ending up with the lunatic Boris running an already obscene Govt is enough for me.

Funny thing is Pacirv, I voted tory last time and have done on quite a few occasion, but not always. I'm an out but I would not vote for a tory party fronted by Boris.

Cayambe wrote:
Only two problems with that

If Scotland were independent tomorrow it would immediately be declared bankrupt with oil at the price that it is.

And it would take them 20 years to be admitted to the EU so for that time they would be treat the same way as the rest of the UK would be.

in

NORTHERNSOUL wrote:
Oh,and the majority of Scots want to stay in UK. Hence the referendum 2 years ago. And the latest polls etc.

OUT.

Prawncrackhead wrote:
Aye, they'll take the billions if they let us back in when it goes tits up.

They'll also take our sterling and replace it with the euro, and laugh in our faces when we ask for our rebate.

Don't kid yourself. There is no going back, at least not to the same unique status we currently enjoy.

Kangshung wrote:
If we do actually leave, I don't think we'll be the only ones, and that would probably end the whole beaureacratic gravy train.

BlueAl wrote:
Sorry BlueAl. I must have misunderstood the question . I thought he said "a 1 word answer would be sufficient". I didn't realise what he really meant was that a 1 word answer was compulsory.

Be careful you read the ballot paper carefully on 23 June ...you wouldn't want to vote the wrong way would you?

.

Bruntonpasty wrote:
That depends on how things go during the separation negotiations, as well as the initial period following our official exit.

In my opinion the EU will be aware of the possibility of a domino effect, and will seek to play a tough hand against us in an effort to deter other member states from following our lead.

Of course, it's all speculation, as the leave crowd are still to deliver any vision for our future outside the EU

In my opinion the EU will be aware of the possibility of a domino effect, and will seek to play a tough hand against us in an effort to deter other member states from following our lead.

As Princess Leia may have said "The more you tighten your grip Tarkin (or in this case Merkel) the more star systems (EU States) will slip through your fingers".

Yorkie Blue wrote:
Using a fantasy as a comparison may prove to be quite apt, though the analogy itself may not.

But again, we're speculating on speculation. Because the out campaign has no alternative. It's a total stab in the dark. We are betting the mortgage on a total mystery.

We know the future if we remain, to a reasonable extent. And yes, it's far from perfect. But we are the fifth largest economy on this planet after 40 years of membership, despite making up less than 1% of the world's population. If we leave, will we magically become the fourth, or third? Or will we slowly slide, dropping to sixth, then to seventh?

Kangshung wrote:
I'm prepared to take that chance.

mojo wrote:
Snap!

Bruntonpasty wrote:
Spot the Greg Abbott supporters.

howoldboy wrote:
Huh? Lost me there I'm afraid

Bruntonpasty wrote:
absolutely not on my part. its called 'having an opinion'. you may find it doesn't concur with what you like, or what you believe is correct.

If the 5th largest economy in the world can't manage without being shackled to the failing EU, how does every other country manage?

In

Why don't the white van men realise if the EU goes tits up it'll be them and their sons getting machine gunned in the trenches when the continent decides to have another genocidal pagger? That it hasn't has been the main benefit of the eu so far.

Dentonholmersimpson wrote:
Every other country? I don't know, you could ask the yanks, Canada and China... or you could ask Somalia, North Korea and Venezuela. No other country is in the position we are. As comparisons are impossible, I think you ask the wrong question.

The UK is unique within the EU - we reap the benefits without many of the burdens other members and prospective members face. Our economy is not governed by the ECB and we will never be forced to adopt the Euro - unless we leave, then decide to reapply. We retain full fiscal sovereignty, which can not be taken away. No other European nation enjoys such autonomy. On top of this, our rebate dramatically reduces our contribution to the EU budget. And, of course, there are non-EU states who contribute almost as much per capita to the EU budget simply to acquire access to the single market. That access also comes with the obligation to allow free movement, and to comply with large swathes of EU law. Do you think we can avoid these two clauses in any favourable trade deal after withdrawal?

In short, our position within the EU is a major factor in why our economy is the fifth largest on the planet.

The question you should be asking is more like 'would we have the fifth largest economy in the world if we hasn't joined the European club in the first place?'

Not that I expect to change anybody's mind. Most are now firmly made up, as they are entitled to be.

As long as they agree with me

Have heard all the arguements from both sides and can confidently predict that whatever the result of the referendum, at the moment we are like passengers on the Titanic,and I,like a lot of others would rather launch the lifeboats than hit that big white thing, which is undoubtedly going to happen.

Dentonholmersimpson wrote:
To me, the 'out' vote is the iceberg.

There aren't enough lifeboats, and that water is fecking freezing.

orfc wrote:
White Van Man carnt really lose if we vote out and it turns out as bad as the remainers say there.ll be a lot of white vans heading over the channel full of the British goods that everybody wants all to be paid for in cash and that.ll be good old British pounds not your shitey euros Mr Foreigner.

OUT.

And yet again, (PLEASE).....OUT!

You're the fecking lunatic pal. The last Labour government was what you would call an obscene government .They shit on their own and shit on the rest of us. I'd take Boris any day of the week.

Dentonholmersimpson wrote:
He's been riding the gravy train for all its worth for nearly 20 years !

I've seen better reasoned debates from both sides on this messageboard than from both official campaigns. why can't they do the same with the same knowledge rather than constantly bleating on about the £350M, the NHS and immigration?

Yes all very interesting and informative. Are you taking note how old boy? No need to insult the outers who you don't agree with.

The EU in the original concept as a free trade area involving co-operation between the European nations was good, as ORFC indicated, this has contributed to a peaceful continent over the last 70 years after centuries of conflict. The modern EU however, is becoming more like a good old 1950`s Soviet Union, admittedly without the deadly purges, but with that strong political grip that wishes to impose compliance without dissention over it`s citizens.
The result of this is a polarisation of opinion and the emergence of political movements within Europe that want out. The exasperation of the people in Europe at the ever remote rulers of the EU who seem to take little heed of what their own population wants is only going to result in civil and social unrest.
This is the Achilles heel of the EU, if the UK votes to leave then it may be this will be followed by Frexit, Spexit, Gerexit etc. If the UK votes to remain it`s only a matter of time before one of the other countries leaves precipitating the collapse of the EU. this would be messy, but ultimately may result in the emergence of a Europe that may reflect better the aspirations of the member nations, and be more fit for purpose in the 21st century.

I think if the EU were to collapse we would see smaller blocks of countries forming. Scandinavia, Spain/Portugal. Central block of Germany/Austria/Netherlands/France/Belgium.

A main fear would he Moscow taking advantage of the fallout and increasing its sphere of influence back to how it was in the Soviet days.

The only threat to peace in Europe is Russia and I think NATO was set up as an alliance to defend against this threat, the EU was never about military union.

For an example, let's look at the last two major crisies the EU has had to deal with, the Eurozone crisis and mass immigration from the Middle East and Africa.

The Chuckle Brothers could have handled them better.

This is a bit like the trust issue lol, to be part of and effect change from within oreason to stand on the sidelines and have no influence. And cheers Old this was a decent debate viva la difference. I respect other people's opinions whether they agree with mine or not, whatever the result we will all have to live with it.

In

Out

Cumbria

OUT

Out

I was doing some research and read a paper that is basically saying we get vale for money from EU membership.

ukandeu.ac.uk/wp-content/uploads/2016/01...fessor-Iain-Begg.pdf

The net cost (2014) is said to be £9.8 billion or £188 million. However, the data is not transparent and it could be significantly higher at £13.4 billion - £14.7 billion (£258 million - £283 million per week). The author justifies this by saying the amount per person is just £4.40 per week or the price of a season ticket to watch Cambridge United. He implicitly concludes it is not a lot.

How many of us CUFC (the proper one) supporters have questioned if we have the £ to pay for a season ticket. I suspect many - - and we have the choice. Now how many of us belong to a household of 5 with a net total annual income of £25,000 (this probably very high for Cumbria). That £22 per week contribution to the EU budget works out over £1,000 per year or 4 % of total income. This after about 7 years when real incomes (taking into account inflation) have fallen and 6 years of Osbourne screwing the most vulnerable in society.

Yet taking that £9.8 billion noted in the first sentence, the comparable figure for 2009 was £4.3 billion. Thats to say that in the 7 years of the need for austerity being driven in by the tories, the cost of membership to the UK of being a member of the EU has more than doubled. What austerity?

The report cited also claims that other countries pay more (i.e Germany and France in total terms) while Italy pays about the same (see www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eure...o-the-EU-budget.html) . That is their choice. But in 2013 - ten countries got more out of the EU than the UK i.e the UK is subsidising other countries.

Amongst the countries we are subsiding are Poland and Romania. Of course, many recent migrants to the come from those two countries. In effect, due to migration, te contribution per capita reduces for these 2 countries while the UK is one of the countries prejudiced in financial terms. I would also claim that the UK supports a large number of inefficient French farmers who benefit from the CAP. Our fishermen continue to suffer from a wholly inadequate CFP, with the Spanish laughing all the way back to Galicia.

The high net migration to the UK stretches the already stretched public services - health, school, transport. Hence the value-for-money to the UK tax payer reduces. Personally, I have no issues with immigration and I would be one of the last to be considered racialist or xenophobe but it is beyond logic to continue to let 10,000s enter the UK each year without planning and without the new investment needed to maintain the level of services everyone in the UK (and not just the british British but everyone who has settled there in the pat 50 years) has the right to expect.

For those reasons, it is OUT. And that is without having to even consider all the bullying and fear tactics employed by cameron and his cronies.

Out. I still havent heard a genuine reason to remain
never let a drowning man grab hold of you because they will take you down with them. I think the EU project is floundering and ruining each developed country in it. It already is on borrowed time and money. Donald Tusk has admitted that the EU's ethos of greater integration is not shared by the people.
If we remain it is a green light for all the dubious rules that they have sat on until after the vote.
Put simply the only way we could bring control to immigration is by leaving. If we remain, it doesn't matter if our economy is better (which isn't guaranteed) any benefits from that would be negated by the influx of more people. Leave, take the hit, take control of immigration and bounce back.

I respect those opinions who wish to remain even if I don't understand why. This board has shown the most remainiacs represented. Most polls and forums I've seen are about 80% for leave.

business.facebook.com/notes/what-happens...5?platform=hootsuite

. Research conducted by Professor Patrick Minford of the Cardiff Business School shows that departure from the EU could see living standards in Britain rise by at least 8 per cent. Another study by eight leading economists says that The UK’s economy could rise by 4 per cent.
2. Capital Economics, in a paper on behalf of Woodford Investment Management, say: ‘There are potential net benefits in the areas of a more tailored immigration policy, the freedom to make trade deals, moderately lower levels of regulation and savings to the public purse. In each of these areas, we do not believe that the benefits of Brexit would be huge, but they are likely to be positive.’ This stands in extreme contrast to the irresponsible doom-mongering offered by Government organisations.
3. We will save a significant portion of a gross payment of £350 million per week that we make to the EU. Estimates by Open Europe (a pro-EU think tank) say that EU regulation costs up to £33 billion per year. While the UK may wish to keep some of the regulations which make up that cost we will have control over our own rules – not distant and unaccountable bureaucrats in Brussels.
4. We will be able to negotiate trade deals with other countries. This way we can trade freely rather than waiting for the EU to negotiate trade agreements with the rest of the world.
5. The Eurozone’s trade surplus with the UK accounts for 37% of the Eurozone’s worldwide trade surplus. This will make it difficult for the EU to impose tariff and non-tariff barriers on the UK because they will continue to want to sell VWs and Audis to us.

pacirv wrote: You are much more likely to get a Boris running the government if you vote in.... if remain win there is very likely to be a vote of no confidence in Cameron within the Conservative party and Boris would be the most likely replacement. This could happen a matter of weeks after the referendum.

Without an equal financial and economic policy the EU and EURO is not sustainable. With the massive difference in each Countries earnings and living standards and the huge difference in expectations the EU will only ever be a political superstate to compete with Russia, China and the USA.

The EU is a state of excess, over pricing and regulation that cannot compete in the World market and is the only ' Superstate ' that is declining. In the past we have dumped the excess on Russia, under Putin this is no longer happening so some commodity markets have fallen badly.

I detest the idea of some unelected spurious career politician from a country the size of Cumbria making decisions that will affect my daily life.

EU Trade Union - Yes
Political Union - NO, NO, NO !!!

cyberslob wrote:
The biggest reason to remain is that we will have to negotiate our own trade agreements. When the EU wanted to toughen its stance on China with tariffs Cameron blocked it. Increased information of off shore companies, Cameron blocked it. Building nuclear weapons, nuclear power stations and fast train lines- all hugely over budget and going out of the UK. All of the evidence shows that Cameron couldn't negotiate a sharp turn in a Tesco aisle. While the EU may not always act perfectly in our interests because of its size and the checks and balances in place recent evidence shows it can do it much better than the current Government.

Depending on which report you read the financial services sector in London represents 20-40% of the UK economy. Germany has worked furiously to boost Frankfurt (even though it still has less money than Edinburgh under management). If we leave the EU will tax financial transactions particularly euro transactions, euro bond issues will all go through Frankfurt etc so the loss to London could be significant.

All of the posts here look at the British reaction but none of them consider the reaction of the EU. Cameron spent a lot of time and money with his nose up Saudi arses and he signed an agreement to sell them £671m worth of arms for use in Yemen. To slap him on the wrist for allowing this EU farce the EU banned exports of weapons to Saudi, but they waited for him to sign the greement first. If the EU bans British cheese? Cars? God knows what. They will react, they won't just passively sit by. If Britain leaves, the EU needs that action to be a failure and they have the means to ensure it will be

Markovitch wrote:

I shouldn't worry, if we vote to leave that will be the end of Cameron.

Our Exit will see others do the same, this will the be catalyst for a new European Trade Union that will include the UK, however with rules that also consider devolution.

thesilentone wrote:
How long do you think it takes to agree trade deals ? They can very easily become long drawn out things meaning, taking than the 2 years we have to leave after the vote.

The leave campaign also seems to assume that we could agree a deal with the EU to reap all of the benefits of membership without any cost, basically having similar terms to what we have now. There is no guarantee of this.

Nor is there any guarantee that any trade deals we agree with non-EU nations would have similar terms to what we have currently as we would be negotiating as a nation of 65m rather than a block of 500m.

When will people learn .The main point should be the country not Economy or imigration.As i have said in previous threads Why should we be told how to act or what to do by people we have not elected.The brave men who fought 2 world wars to stop us being ruled by or told what to do by others .Since we joined the EU we have slowly sold these men down the river to the EU so its our fault for voting to join.And for president Obama to come over to tell us to stay in after they lost all them men in the war .How would he like it if someone in Venuzuela was telling how to act or what to do i for one would think the Americans would be up in arms .Do the military not swear when they join up for Queen and country or something along those lines infact i think the Queen should get involved and stand up and tell everyone to get there country back .

DeckchairBlue wrote:
You should have watched Digby Jones on TV at Lunchtime he completely busted open the tariffs myth and explained how and why they simply wont happen and how us not charging other countries tariffs could well result in our trade increasing not decreasing.

And how whatever mad scheme the EU introduce the German motor industry will simply bust it wide open by ignoring it and every other manufacturing sector who want to export to us will soon follow.

To many people are voting with their heart and not their head and only on the immigration issue, while the likes of TTIP is been mooted that could result in major companies suing and bankrupting countries. If we vote out we will be at the mercy of an uncaring Govt with no one to curb their extreme policies.

pacirv wrote:
But thats the whole point we wont because the way the main parties are pulling themselves apart the chances of coalition govmt are increasing massively and that can only lead to the smaller parties achieving a form of proportional representation and if you take it that the two main parties are each split in two the votes [ if not necessarily at present the seats ] will be spread between up to 7 factions/parties and it will only take one real coalition government and we.ll have some form of PR for ever and the days of things like Camerons austerity packages will be consigned to history for ever.starting with guaranteed funding for local councils to provide a much wider range of compulsory services that are important to the local communities like Librarys and Transport subsidies.

pacirv wrote:
If we vote out we won't be part of TTIP as it's between the EU and US.

People keep going on about us being batter off doing our own trade deals like Switzerland. Look at the deal the Swiss have with China, it's absolutely awful and completely one sided in favour of the chinese.