Worth a read-easy to blame the naughty Tories but this blow out has been rumbling for a while.
This is about punishing a UK government in my opinion for not pursuing ‘Davos consensus’ economic policy.The independent BOE should take a lot of the blame
Another twist in the Great Melt has occurred. For decades now bond vigilantes have been asleep on their sunbeds, lulled into a slumber by the soothing lapping of waves of secular stagnation and the froth of QE washing gently against the shore. Now all that has been drowned out by the sound of UK Gilts screaming in agony as the UK’s tortured public sector finances have awoken Rip Van Vigilante and he ain’t happy.
I’ve been transported back in time this week to the mid-1990s. In 1994 as the Fed tightened rates faster than the market had expected, the US bond market suffered a historic rout that culminated in the Orange County bankruptcy and the Mexican Peso Crisis. I remember it well. In that same year, James Carville, a political adviser to President Clinton, famously remarked that if there were such a thing as reincarnation, he would like to be reincarnated as the bond market, such was the power of the bond vigilantes to police the government.
Fast forward a decade to February 2005 and the contrast was stark. In Congressional testimony, Alan Greenspan identified his “conundrum”. Despite the fact that the Fed had raised the Fed Funds rate 150bp since June 2004, the 10y Treasury yield was essentially unchanged. All sorts of explanations were put forward, and years later Fed Chair Ben Bernanke excused his own responsibility for the (consequent) housing bust and GFC by claiming that excess Chinese savings were the likely explanation for Greenspan’s conundrum.
The simple fact is that it was the emergence of Ice Age deflationary forces that were the primary secular factors underpinning the Japanification of western bond markets. Sure, bond yields would rise briefly on a cyclical basis at the peak of any economic cycle, but the downtrend always remained intact. That secular downtrend was then cemented in place by the emergence of QE after the GFC, which also lulled governments into a false sense of confidence that the bond vigilantes would never return – and even if they did, central banks would have their backs.
As G7 government debt ratios exploded though repeated crises, the bond vigilantes’ breathing may have got shallower, but they remained asleep. To be honest most of us in the markets thought if any economy were to suffer the first violent blows of vigilante retribution, it would be Japan. But no, as it turns out the UK has crossed that invisible line of credibility. While most press attention is on sterling’s weakness, it is UK Gilts that have crashed horribly. But the markets have proved that, as in 2018, QT is not “boring like watching paint dry” and they have forced the BoE into an ignominious Powell-like pivot. What comes next? “Not-QE” comes next.
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Sterling’s post- budget weakness is a sideshow by comparison to what is happening in the UK bond market. There are loads of charts to show just how bad the situation is in UK Gilts – like this one.
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Actually, despite the angst about the budget deficit, the UK government finances are in pretty good shape - but only relative to the much higher ratios we see elsewhere, including the US!
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So how did the new UK Government lose the confidence of the markets so quickly? I believe it is too easy to blame the budget’s dash for growth as the trigger. Indeed, the recent unprecedented criticism of a G7 budget by the IMF just reinforces my view that the Davos-consensus on the ‘correct’ economic policies to pursue were never going to tolerate someone trying to break away from the pack without trying to bring them into line. Look how the ECB has treated recalcitrant Italian governments of recent years – with similar threatening noises being heard once again.
What is interesting looking at the tax cuts announced in the UK budget is that almost 90% of the cuts in the budget (in terms of size) were preannounced weeks ago and so were old news already in the price. The 1p cut in the basic rate of tax was a surprise on the day, but that was only bringing forward the pre-announced cut by one year. And the politically questionable move to abolish the highest 45% rate of tax cost ‘only’ £2bn – against a total income tax take of £900bn.
Commentators such as the well-regarded Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) are lining up to claim that this was the biggest fiscal stimulus since the disastrous Barber Budget of 1972, when you had a similar dash for growth. That comparison is utter rubbish, because it compares the mini-budget to the former Chancellor Rishi Sunak’s plans to impose massive tax hikes on corporations and national insurance contributions – and not to the current status quo. Hiking taxes going into a recession, as Sunak was about to do, was in my opinion, bonkers – it was just another pursuit of the failed policy of fiscal austerity leading to the tight fiscal/easy monetary policy mix which the Davos-consensus so approve (maybe because it pushes financial asset prices to the moon).
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Bloomberg, I think, has inadvertently uncovered the truth. They write “To fund the stimulus, the nation’s Debt Management Office lifted its government bond sales for this fiscal year by £62.4 billion ($69.8 billion), even more than an estimated £60 billion increase expected by banks surveyed by Bloomberg. The extra bond supply from the UK government might prove especially challenging for the gilt market now that the BOE is also offloading debt from its portfolio, in stark contrast to during the pandemic when they were buying gilts under quantitative easing. The central bank said on Thursday it plans to sell around £10 billion in gilts each quarter starting on Oct. 3.” – link.
So did an increase in bond sales to £62.4bn against an expected £60bn really trigger the rout? No of course not! It was on the Thursday, the day before the budget that Gilts started selling off sharply, led by a continued rout in the US bond market, but crucially as an adverse reaction to the BoE policy meeting that day. Despite awful inflation news, the BoE failed to keep up with the Fed’s 75bp hike and ‘only’ delivered a 50bp rise, undermining sterling. Also, the BoE announced they were about to ramp up Quantitative Tightening (QT) with outright sales of Gilts. At a time when global bond markets were already under severe pressure, one could reasonably suggest this was foolhardy timing. Gilt yields surged on that BoE announcement on Thursday, effectively pulling the rug out from under an unsuspecting and overly complacent Chancellor on Friday. An increase in the Gilt supply of £62.4bn instead of an expected £60bn, cited by Bloomberg above, is hardly the stuff of Gilt market nightmares, but full-blown QT most certainly is!
Central Banks are very good at deflecting blame. They did it in the wake of the GFC (blaming commercial bankers) and again for the explosion of inflation since the pandemic (blaming the war in Ukraine). And so it goes on. Of course, for the BoE it is very convenient that almost all commentators are saying this week’s market turmoil is the direct result of the budget, but the BoE should also shoulder their share of the blame for this debacle. And they look especially inept now, with their resumption of QE to stabilise the Gilt market. They might well claim this is not QE, but that has echoes of Fed Chair Powell who claimed Fed intervention to stabilise the repo market in October 2019 was “not-QE” as it laughingly became known - link. And the UK isn’t the only G7 economy trying to stimulate growth with historically loose fiscal policies, as the recent CBO costing of US student loan forgiveness makes clear – link.
The bottom line is, after decades of central bank stimulus inflating bubbles and financial leverage to grotesque heights, the markets are still in charge and they just won’t tolerate QT.
I keep citing Mike Tyson’s famous quote, “everyone has a plan till they get punched in the face”. Which reminds me, isn’t the Fed in the process of doubling its QT to $96bn a month? Good luck with that!